The other report
ESPEN
SEPTEMBER 1, 2026 · SHEINBAUM'S SECOND STATE OF THE UNION · INTERACTIVE SPECIAL

The other report on the real Mexico

What 8 years did to your table, your debt and your streets, measured with official figures

Today the President delivers her second annual report. This is the report Palacio will not read: what your money bought in 2018, what it buys today, how much debt every Mexican carries, and how many are no longer here to listen. Every figure has a source. Every source is official. You draw the conclusion.

0
What 100 pesos from 2018 cost today (CPI, INEGI, July 2026)
0
Trillion pesos of public debt, SHRFSP as of June 2026 (SHCP)
0
Missing persons in the national registry as of June 16, 2026
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How much a kilo of tortillas rose since April 2018 (INEGI)
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01In plain words

Two reports on the same country

Today you will hear a report full of rising percentages. This site is the mirror: the percentages rising on you. No adjectives. INEGI prices, Treasury debt, the government's own disappearance registry and Bank of Mexico remittances. This house has one rule: no figure without a source.

The most honest way to measure 8 years is not the speech: it is the grocery run. That is why this special starts at the market, moves to your paycheck, passes through the debt you never signed but still owe, and ends with the two figures no report ever brags about: the disappeared and the ones who left.

Use the calculators. Move the numbers. They are yours.

02The market

How much does your 2018 money buy today?

Start with Mexico's most famous bill: 100 pesos. In July 2018, INEGI's consumer price index stood at exactly 100. In July 2026 it stands at 145.17. Translation without economists: to buy what 100 pesos bought 8 years ago, today you need 145 pesos and 17 cents.

TORTILLAS, MEASURED BY INEGI
With a $100 bill:
APRIL 2018 · $15.00 PER KILO
6.7 kilos of tortillas
APRIL 2026 · $24.20 PER KILO
4.1 kilos of tortillas
INEGI, national average price per kilo of tortillas: $15.00 (April 2018) to $24.20 (first half of April 2026), +61%. In Colima, Sonora and Nayarit it already hovers near $30.
YOUR GROCERIES, MEASURED BY THE CPI
How much did you spend per month in 2018?
IN 2018
$6,000
THE SAME, TODAY
$8,710
YOU FALL SHORT EVERY YEAR BY
$32,520
Calculated with INEGI's CPI: index 100 (July 2018, base year) to 145.169 (July 2026). Factor 1.4517.
MILK · LITER
JUL 2018
$17.19
+74%
JUL 2025
$29.92
SNIIM and Profeco: $17.19 per pasteurized liter in July 2018. Profeco, presented at the presidential press conference: $29.92 national average per liter of whole milk, July 2025.
EGGS · KILO
JAN 2018
$29.50
+32%
JAN 2026
$39.00
SEDECO CDMX, basic basket January 2018: $29.50 per kilo. Profeco, January 2026: $39.00 national average in bulk. In August 2026 eggs posted their biggest biweekly jump in 20 years, +7.92% (INEGI); in Guadalajara they hit $70 and in Tijuana $80 per kilo.
REGULAR GASOLINE · LITER
NOV 2018
$19.31
+23%
AUG 2026
$23.69
National averages: $19.31 in November 2018; $23.69 in August 2026 (PetroIntelligence). Conceded: it rose less than general inflation. The fine print: since April 2025 the fiscal stimulus was eliminated and you pay the full IEPS tax, $6.70 per liter in 2026 (SHCP, DOF).
TORTILLAS · KILO
APR 2018
$15.00
+61%
APR 2026
$24.20
INEGI, national average price. In Colima, Sonora and Nayarit it already hovers near $30.
SIMULATOR · BUILD YOUR WEEKLY MARKET RUN
The same groceries, two eras. Move the quantities:
TORTILLAS5 KG
MILK6 LITERS
EGGS1.5 KG
GASOLINE30 LITERS
YOUR MARKET RUN IN 2018
$0
PER WEEK
THE SAME MARKET RUN TODAY
$0
PER WEEK
THIS MARKET RUN COSTS YOU EVERY YEAR
$0 más que en 2018
Prices sourced in the cards above. Educational tool: it compares the same volumes at 2018 national average prices and the most recent available. Rent and other household expenses update with the general CPI in the groceries calculator.
THE CURVE OF YOUR PRICES · CPI EVERY JULY · INEGI
Touch the curve: every dot is a July of your life
INEGI, monthly CPI (July of each year, base second half of July 2018 = 100). From 99.909 in July 2018 to 145.169 in July 2026: +45.3% accumulated.
$145.17What you need today to buy what $100 bought in 2018. CPI, INEGI.
03The paycheck

The figure Palacio will repeat today, in full

Let us be exact, because exactness is what Palacio does not expect from its critics. The minimum wage did rise, a lot: from $88.36 a day in 2018 to $315.04 in 2026, by decree published in the Official Gazette. It is the report's star indicator and it is real. This site does not deny it: it places it next to the rest.

Because a country does not live on the minimum wage. It lives on what your paycheck, yours, buys at the tortilla shop, the pharmacy and the rent. And there the CPI is merciless: every 2018 peso is worth 69 cents today. Test it with your own salary:

CALCULATOR · YOUR SALARY IN 2018 PESOS
How much do you earn per month today?
YOUR SALARY, IN 2018 PURCHASING POWER
$10,333
PARA VIVIR COMO IN 2018 CON ESE SUELDO NECESITARÍA HOY
$21,776
Own calculation with INEGI's CPI (factor 1.4517 between July 2018 and July 2026). Educational tool.

Three speeds of the same country, sourced: the minimum wage rose 257% nominal (CONASAMI). General prices rose 45% (INEGI). Tortillas rose 61% (INEGI). Whoever earns exactly the minimum came out ahead of tortillas. The question the report does not answer: do you earn the minimum? And did your salary rise 45% since 2018? If not, you are poorer than 8 years ago. No adjectives. By arithmetic.

If your salary did not rise 45% since 2018, you are poorer than 8 years ago. By arithmetic.

CONASAMI/DOF: general minimum wage $88.36 (2018) and $315.04 (2026). INEGI: CPI 100 to 145.169 (Jul 2018 to Jul 2026); tortillas +61% (Apr 2018 to Apr 2026).
04Health

The prescription the State never filled

The promise was a health system like Denmark. The record says otherwise: in 2023 alone, 7,503,818 prescriptions went unfilled in public hospitals and institutes. Between 2021 and 2023 the total reached 14.7 million unfilled prescriptions, documented by the Cero Desabasto collective. And patient reports keep coming in 2026.

When the State does not deliver, you pay. Out-of-pocket spending on medicine grew 116% between 2018 and 2024: from 222 to 480 pesos per quarter per household on average, per INEGI's ENIGH survey. And 1.11 million households fell into catastrophic health spending: more than 30% of their capacity to pay went to getting well.

7.5 millonesPrescriptions unfilled in the public system in 2023 alone (Cero Desabasto).
OUT-OF-POCKET SPENDING ON MEDICINE · 2018
$222 /quarter
OUT-OF-POCKET SPENDING ON MEDICINE · 2024
$480 /quarter

The shortage is not a statistic. It is a family buying at the pharmacy what it already paid for in taxes.

Cero Desabasto: 7,503,818 prescriptions unfilled in 2023; 14,679,853 accumulated 2021-2023; 12,974 patient reports between 2019 and July 2026. ENIGH/INEGI: out-of-pocket medicine spending from 222 to 480 pesos per quarter per household between 2018 and 2024, +116%. Mexico Evalua with ENIGH 2024: 1.11 million households with catastrophic health spending.
05Jobs

The country where the minimum wage misses half the people

Here is the key that connects this whole report. The minimum wage rose, true. But the minimum is a right for those with an employer, a contract and social security. In July 2026, labor informality stood at 55%: more than half of working Mexicans do so with no social security, no formal employer and no guaranteed minimum wage, per INEGI's ENOE survey.

That is why the speech and the grocery bill do not match. The report's star indicator protects part of the country. Inflation, on the other hand, is paid by all. The informal 55% received the full increase in tortillas, milk and eggs. From the minimum wage increase they received whatever their informal employer chose to give: sometimes something, often nothing.

55%Labor informality rate in July 2026: workers without social security or a guaranteed minimum wage (ENOE, INEGI).

Half of Mexico works outside the only indicator Palacio brags about.

INEGI, National Occupation and Employment Survey: labor informality rate of 55.0% in July 2026 and 54.8% in February and April 2026.
06The debt

What you owe without ever signing

In December 2018, Mexico public debt in its broadest measure was 10.55 trillion pesos, per the Treasury. As of June 2026 it is 19.05 trillion: 51 of every 100 pesos the country produces in a year. In 8 years, the balance nearly doubled. And the speech of these 8 years was: we do not borrow like the neoliberals.

PUBLIC DEBT · SHRFSP · SHCP · JUNE 2026
0
DE PESOS. IN 2018 ERAN 10.55 BILLONES.
DEBT PER MEXICAN, 2018
$84,400
DEBT PER MEXICAN, 2026
$145,000

Every baby born in Mexico today is born owing 145 thousand pesos. They never asked for it. They never saw it. They will pay it in taxes, in interest and in the public spending that will no longer stretch: debt service already exceeds, since 2015, all public education spending, per CIEP.

SHCP, quarterly debt reports: SHRFSP from 10.55 trillion pesos (end of 2018) to 19.0477 trillion (June 2026), 51% of GDP. Debt per person: own calculation with an estimated population of 131.5 million (INEGI). CIEP: debt service of 4.1 trillion pesos in 2026, larger than total public education spending since 2015.
07The missing

The line item no report ever brags about

The national registry of missing persons reached 135,048 cases on June 16, 2026. Of that entire historical registry, which starts in 1952, 58% is concentrated between 2018 and 2026: around 78 thousand people disappeared during the 8 years of this political project. It is the most honest statistic of the period because no adversary produces it: the State itself does.

In 2025 alone, 12,373 disappearances were registered. That is 34 people every day. One every 42 minutes. While you read this chapter, the counter moved.

0Missing and unlocated persons in the national registry as of June 16, 2026 (RNPDNL).
DISAPPEARANCES REGISTERED IN 2024
12,632
DISAPPEARANCES REGISTERED IN 2025
12,373

On homicides, full exactness, because this site hides nothing from you: the 2018-2024 term closed with 188,986 victims of intentional homicide, the largest total on record. The current administration had added some 39 thousand more victims by the first four months of 2026. In total, more than 228 thousand homicides in 8 years. And yes: homicide has been falling steadily in 2025 and 2026, down 41.7% from January to July versus the prior year per the security secretariat. That figure is real and you will hear it today. What you will not hear is the one above: disappearances are not falling. Twelve thousand a year, year after year. When homicides fall and disappearances do not, the open question is where the bodies that are no longer counted are going.

Homicides are falling. Disappearances are not. The question is where the bodies that are no longer counted went.

RNPDNL: 135,048 records as of June 16, 2026; 12,632 disappearances in 2024 and 12,373 in 2025; 58% of the historical registry concentrated between 2018 and May 2026 (Red Lupa analysis of the official registry). SESNSP: 188,986 intentional homicide victims in the 2018-2024 term; 41.7% drop January-July 2026 versus 2025. 8-year total: own calculation with SESNSP and T Research count through the first four months of 2026.
08Tourism and dollars

The record that comes with fine print

Conceded, because this site concedes what is true: 2025 was a record year for tourism. 47.8 million international tourists came in and total visitor spending left 34.9 billion dollars in foreign currency, 10.2% more than the year before, per INEGI. You will hear that figure today, and it is real.

The fine print is also INEGI's: the tourist who arrives by plane, the one who spends the most, fell 1.3% in 2025. And average spending per traveler dropped. Translation: Mexico is gaining pass-through and cruise visitors and losing the airborne tourist who fills hotels, restaurants and entire cities. The record is about quantity. Quality is moving the other way.

And the dollars that actually sustain households are not the tourist's: they are the 62 billion in remittances in the next chapter. Those are the ones shrinking.

INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS 2025 · RECORD
47.8 million
INBOUND TOURISTS BY AIR · THE BIGGEST SPENDERS
-1.3% in 2025
INEGI, International Traveler Surveys: 47.8 million international tourists in 2025 (+6.1%); foreign currency income from total visitor spending of 34.9 billion dollars (+10.2%); inbound tourists by air: 22.8 million, -1.3% versus 2024, with lower average spending per traveler.
09The ones who left

The country propped up by shrinking checks

For 8 years, the silent cushion of Mexican household economics was remittances: the money of those who left. In 2025 that cushion shrank for the first time in more than a decade: from 64,746 million dollars in 2024 to 61,791 million, a 4.5% drop, the deepest since 2009, per the Bank of Mexico.

Behind the money are the people. CEMLA documents a reduction of nearly one million working-age Mexicans in the United States in barely a year, between deportations and returns. More than 100 thousand Mexicans were deported in the first 10 months of the migration offensive: half of all Latin American deportations. Many had spent decades working there and sending money here.

Read it whole: the model of these 8 years bragged that the popular economy was better off, while a growing share of that improvement was paid for by 12 million Mexicans who had to leave and produce it in another country. That subsidy is closing. And no social program replaces 62 billion dollars a year.

THE CURVE OF THE NORTHERN CHECK · ANNUAL REMITTANCES · BANXICO
Seven years rising. In 2025, the curve bent
Bank of Mexico, annual remittance income in millions of dollars: 36,438 (2019), 40,605 (2020), 51,594 (2021), 58,868 (2022), 63,313 (2023), 64,745 (2024) and 61,791 (2025), the first annual drop since 2013.
REMITTANCES 2024 (BANXICO)
64,746 MDD
REMITTANCES 2025 (BANXICO) · FIRST DROP IN 12 YEARS
61,791 MDD
1 millónFewer working-age Mexicans in the U.S. in one year, from deportations and returns (CEMLA, 2026).
Bank of Mexico: remittances from 64,746 MUSD (2024) to 61,791 MUSD (2025), -4.5%, first annual drop since 2013 (BBVA Research analysis). CEMLA (June 2026): reduction of nearly one million in the working-age Mexican migrant population. Deportations: more than 100 thousand Mexicans in 10 months, 53% of the Latin American total.
10The rebuttal

What she said, and the other page

Today's report did not lie in its figures. It lied in what it left out of each figure. This rebuttal uses no adjectives: it uses the full bulletin of the very source Palacio cited. Twelve verbatim claims, twelve real figures, twelve sources.

01 · Tax collection
SHE SAID

"149 billion pesos more so far in 2026. Record federal revenue of 6.046 trillion."

THE REAL FIGURE

The SAT itself reported that tax collection grew 0.4% in real terms through the first half. The 149 billion is almost entirely inflation. In 2025 it grew 6.4% real; in 2026, 0.4%. What is truly rising are consumption taxes: VAT +115,196 million and IEPS +31,864 million in the half, with gasoline paying the full IEPS since April 2025.

SAT, tax revenue Jan-Jun 2026 and Jan-Aug 2025. SHCP/DOF, IEPS 2026.
02 · Minimum wage
SHE SAID

"From 2,800 pesos a month in 2018 to 9,282 in 2026: a real increase of 154%."

THE REAL FIGURE

True and conceded. But 154% is the decree's percentage, not life's. Real labor income per person rose 7.4% in the last year. Labor income per capita is 3,653 pesos a month: 120 pesos a day, with milk at 29.92 and tortillas at 24.20. And 55% work informally, where the decree does not apply; informality rose versus last year.

INEGI, ENOE and labor poverty 1Q2026. Profeco, milk Jul-2025. INEGI, tortillas Apr-2026.
03 · Labor poverty
SHE SAID

"At its lowest level since 2005."

THE REAL FIGURE

Labor poverty measures whether income covers the food basket: eating. The record low means 40.3 million Mexicans still do not earn enough from work to eat. With the same data, 60% of the population cannot afford the full basket; in eight states it exceeds 70%; Chiapas, 83.7%. And the low (30.7%) was the first quarter: the second-quarter update puts it at 31.9%, already heading back up.

INEGI, labor poverty 1Q2026. Mexico como vamos, full basket. 2Q2026 update cited in the official presentation.
04 · Formal wages
SHE SAID

"Average formal wage reached 20,212 pesos, a record. 22.8 million formal jobs."

THE REAL FIGURE

That average covers only formal workers: 22.8 million out of 59.6 million employed. It is the wage of 38% of the country. The other 62% is absent from the figure. And the income gain is attributed to the decree and social programs, not new formal jobs, which stalled in 2025.

Government of Mexico, formal jobs Jun-2026. INEGI, ENOE 1Q2026.
05 · Unemployment
SHE SAID

"2.7%, second lowest in the OECD after Japan."

THE REAL FIGURE

Mexico has no unemployment because it has informality. Whoever loses a formal job is not counted as unemployed: they sell on the street or drive for an app, and the ENOE counts them as employed. A country with 55% informality does not compete with Japan on jobs; it competes on how unemployment is disguised.

INEGI, ENOE: informality 55.0% Jul-2026; unemployment 2.6% 1Q2026.
06 · 40-hour week
SHE SAID

"Reform to reach a 40-hour work week by 2030."

THE REAL FIGURE

The legal work week applies to those with a contract. 55% of workers have none. The reform reaches less than half of the working country.

INEGI, ENOE, informality Jul-2026.
07 · Austerity
SHE SAID

"Current spending cut by 200 billion. An economy that serves the people is only achieved with austerity."

THE REAL FIGURE

Austerity does not show in the debt: from 10.55 trillion at the end of 2018 to 19.05 trillion in June 2026, 51% of GDP. 145 thousand pesos per Mexican. Debt service, 4.1 trillion in 2026, exceeds all public education spending. They saved 200 billion in current spending and pay 4.1 trillion in interest.

SHCP, public debt. CIEP. Own per-capita calculation with INEGI population.
08 · Tourism
SHE SAID

"51.1 million international travelers in the half, +7.7%. 6.6 million by cruise, +15.2%."

THE REAL FIGURE

Travelers are not tourists: the figure includes border and cruise day-trippers. The tourist who arrives by plane, the one who fills hotels and cities, fell 1.3% in 2025 and average spending per traveler dropped. The record is volume; quality is moving the other way.

INEGI, International Traveler Surveys 2025.
09 · Strong peso
SHE SAID

"Strength of the peso, around 17 per dollar."

THE REAL FIGURE

The strong peso has a loser the report did not name: families receiving remittances. They fell for the first time in 12 years, from 64,746 to 61,791 million dollars, and every dollar now buys fewer pesos. A double hit. Behind it: one million fewer Mexicans working in the U.S. in a year.

Banxico, remittances 2024-2025. CEMLA, Jun-2026.
10 · Health
SHE SAID

"Specialty consultations +106% versus 2022. 33 new hospitals, 650 operating rooms."

THE REAL FIGURE

Hospitals get counted; so do prescriptions. 7,503,818 prescriptions unfilled in 2023 alone; 14.7 million between 2021 and 2023. When the State does not deliver, the family pays: out-of-pocket medicine spending +116% between 2018 and 2024; 1.11 million households in catastrophic spending.

Cero Desabasto. INEGI, ENIGH. Mexico Evalua.
11 · Security
SHE SAID

"Homicides are falling steadily."

THE REAL FIGURE

True and conceded: -41.7% from January to July 2026. What was not said: disappearances are not falling. 12,632 in 2024; 12,373 in 2025; 34 every day. 135,048 in the registry and 58% of the entire historical total concentrated between 2018 and 2026.

SESNSP. RNPDNL as of Jun-16-2026. Red Lupa.
12 · Sovereignty
SHE SAID

"Mexico is nobody's pinata. We accept no interference."

THE REAL FIGURE

While the speech rejects interference, the agenda moves. On August 26, behind closed doors in Washington, concrete demands were set on Sinaloa, handover of cases and customs; the next day the first case file fell. Sovereignty is declared at the Palace; it is negotiated in Washington.

Own investigation: The Rubio Strategy, lista.simonlevy.mx/en. Presumption of innocence for all persons named.
11The verdict

Save this page next to the speech

This site asked you to believe no one. It showed you INEGI's CPI, the Treasury's debt, the government's own registry of the missing, the Bank of Mexico's remittances and the minimum wage decree in the Official Gazette. It conceded what had to be conceded: the minimum wage truly rose and homicides are falling. And it measured the rest: your money buys 31% less, debt per head rose 72%, milk rose 74% and tortillas 61%, out-of-pocket medicine spending grew 116% while 7.5 million prescriptions went unfilled, 55% of the country works outside the minimum they brag about, 78 thousand people disappeared in 8 years and the northern check is shrinking for the first time in a decade.

Today they will tell you that you have never been better off. You now have the market, the calculator and the sources to answer with numbers, not shouting. Share it with whoever will watch the speech. The best fact-check is not a tweet: it is your own grocery run.

SOURCES FOR THIS SPECIAL: INEGI, Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor (índice 100 en julio de 2018, año base, a 145.169 en julio de 2026) y precios promedio de la tortilla ($15.00 en abril de 2018 a $24.20 en la primera quincena de abril de 2026). CONASAMI y Diario Oficial de la Federación, salarios mínimos 2018 y 2026 ($88.36 y $315.04 diarios). SHCP, Informes sobre la Situación Económica, las Finanzas Públicas y la Deuda Pública (SHRFSP: 10.55 billones al cierre de 2018; 19.05 billones a junio de 2026, 51% del PIB). CIEP, análisis del costo financiero de la deuda. RNPDNL y análisis de Red Lupa sobre el registro oficial de personas desaparecidas (135,048 al 16 de junio de 2026). SESNSP, víctimas de homicidio doloso (188,986 en el sexenio 2018-2024; reducción de 41.7% enero-julio 2026). T Research, acumulado de la administración actual. Banco de México, ingresos por remesas 2024-2025. BBVA Research. CEMLA, El ingreso anual por remesas y mercado laboral de trabajadores mexicanos migrantes (junio 2026). Profeco y SNIIM, precios de leche y huevo; SEDECO CDMX, canasta básica 2018; PetroIntelligence, gasolina; SHCP/DOF, IEPS 2026. Cero Desabasto, recetas no surtidas. México Evalúa, gastos catastróficos en salud. INEGI-ENOE, informalidad laboral. INEGI, Encuestas de Viajeros Internacionales. Cálculos propios señalados en cada módulo. Las calculadoras son herramientas educativas basadas en índices oficiales y no constituyen asesoría financiera.